Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 0.856212 1.002402 1.165890 1.362286 1.591866 1.851834 2.168709
2024-11-03 0.624476 0.817978 1.059567 1.383456 1.806687 2.341551 3.069985
2024-11-10 0.527780 0.748885 1.047454 1.480329 2.092754 2.929753 4.163688
2024-11-17 0.449664 0.680808 1.013419 1.527295 2.302760 3.432152 5.207934
2024-11-24 0.383479 0.614006 0.964419 1.536322 2.448758 3.852584 6.186199
2024-12-01 0.328272 0.552467 0.910303 1.523585 2.551819 4.213104 7.115295
2024-12-08 0.285604 0.502994 0.865754 1.515827 2.656211 4.582750 8.104403
2024-12-15 0.254711 0.467841 0.838434 1.530532 2.796594 5.025639 9.275027
2024-12-22 0.218898 0.418135 0.778125 1.476832 2.805956 5.237992 10.059821
2024-12-29 0.209696 0.415697 0.801678 1.578665 3.112459 6.023338 12.013062
2025-01-05 0.183551 0.376831 0.751604 1.532466 3.128754 6.264457 12.947365
2025-01-12 0.160940 0.341613 0.703564 1.482871 3.129949 6.473437 13.841760
2025-01-19 0.141115 0.309801 0.659066 1.436433 3.135701 6.701595 14.830766
2025-01-26 0.129983 0.294957 0.647773 1.459050 3.292078 7.266147 16.632341
2025-02-02 0.126555 0.296495 0.671465 1.561251 3.636923 8.281022 19.584020
2025-02-09 0.119238 0.288060 0.671922 1.610792 3.869303 9.077874 22.153067
2025-02-16 0.109897 0.273461 0.656281 1.620314 4.009040 9.681070 24.350856
2025-02-23 0.100175 0.256473 0.632626 1.606879 4.090825 10.157271 26.305155
2025-03-02 0.091836 0.241714 0.612303 1.598696 4.184241 10.673662 28.436895
2025-03-09 0.085631 0.231527 0.601887 1.614207 4.340244 11.366632 31.130222
2025-03-16 0.076492 0.212278 0.565871 1.557563 4.298767 11.548667 32.486121
2025-03-23 0.075784 0.215781 0.589608 1.664978 4.715025 12.989179 37.514255
2025-03-30 0.068360 0.199528 0.558371 1.616247 4.692260 13.244074 39.237404